Tonight is the night. The NBA season which will be used as the season that the league’s Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) to start bearing fruit, is about to end with a Game 7.
The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder are considered “small market” teams (a term often misused) that have had success over the past two seasons.
So, with the last NBA game wager upon us, let’s get started.
The odds we are using are from FanDuel.
Line: Oklahoma City -7 (-112); Indiana +7 (-108)
This line is crazy to me. What have the Thunder down to make me think that they will cover by seven? For those thinking this is a case of recency bias, you’re wrong.
The Pacers’ strategy has been the same over the last two playoff seasons.
They want to wear you down throughout a series. That strategy got them to the Eastern Conference Finals last season and the NBA Finals this season.
There are times that the Thunder look tired.
Mark Daigneault has tried to help offset this by depending on the bench for longer stretches and looking to get players like Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams started early in games.
The Pacers have the Thunder right where they want them.
Indiana +7 (-108)
For those wondering about the Moneyline, it’s OKC -112 and Indiana +225. I’m not playing the Moneyline, but if I were, I would take the Pacers as a value bet.
The total is 214.5. The over gets you -112, and the under gets you -108.
The number will depend on how well the Thunder’s offense performs tonight. I would be shocked if the Pacers, at worst, hovers around the 111 points. If that happens, it means an Oklahoma City victory will likely push the number over.
On the props side of the house, let’s start with Luguentz Dort. In two out of the three home games, Dort has exceeded 12.5 in Points+Rebounds+Assists.
Tonight won’t be any different. Give Dort over the 12.5 (PRA) even at the -122 juice.
Both teams have needed one of the “others” to have good scoring games. The league isn’t the same one Michael Jordan ruled for years. The third and fourth scorers will need to make plays.
The million-dollar question is who.
From the Pacers, I’ll take Aaron Nesmith. I can get over 10.5 points at a +100. Nesmith’s shooting hasn’t held him back. It’s foul trouble. In the last four games, he’s had at least four fouls while fouling out of two of them.
The refs will give each team some room to be physical early on in the game. That should help Nesmith. Nesmith o10.5 points (+100)
On the Thunder side, it’s more challenging to find value. You can get Caruso o8.5, but that comes at a -120. Holmgren is even worse. The over on his number (14.5) will cost you -132.
That leaves me with Isaiah Hartenstein at o5.5 (-112). Hartenstein has only gotten over this number twice in the series, in Game One and Game Six, but the Thunder’s need for points at the front of the rim, especially early, will give him a chance.
Other Bets:
Pascal Siakam o7.5 Rebounds (+104)
Luguentz Dort 3+ Made Threes (+182)
Tyrese Haliburton 8+ Assists (+124)
