We have officially moved to the portion of the NFL season where the choices get limited.
There are six games to wager on this weekend (including Monday). My strategy is less is more. I limit the number of bets but look for opportunities to bet a unit or a unit-and-a-half.
Lines courtesy of ESPN Bet
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
Line: Chargers -3
Total: 42.5
Houston has been a disappointment for the most part, but the Texans were probably ahead of schedule last season, and they’ve simply settled into where they should be.
CJ Stroud hasn’t had showy numbers this season, and he’s made mistakes he didn’t make last season. That could bode well for the Chargers defense.
Stroud o0.5 interceptions (-120)
The most important player on the Texans offense is Joe Mixon. Mixon can take pressure off of Stroud. The Chargers will be focused on him, but Houston has no choice but to stick with getting Mixon the ball, whether they are in front or behind.
Mixon o90 yards rushing + receiving (-155)
On the Chargers side, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards have been dinged up and were limited in practice this week.
Luckily for Jim Harbaugh, he has a quarterback like Justin Herbert. Herbert only threw three interceptions this season. It might seem counterintuitive, but I like Herbert’s arm in this one.
Herbert o1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -9.5
Total: 43.5
The Steelers-Ravens rivalry has turned into the division version of the Patriots-Colts.
Pittsburgh has lost four in a row, and the Ravens’ defense has progressively improved this season, but I’m shocked by the line.
It will be cold in Baltimore on Saturday night. The game will be a slow possession-by-possession battle.
Steelers +9.5 (-105)
The playoff time means Russell Wilson will play some hero ball. For better or worse, Wilson has always been a spotlight guy. It’s why one of the first bets I looked at was “longest completion.” Whether the Steelers are up or behind, Wilson will try and hit a home run more than once.
Wilson Longest Pass Completion o35 yards (-110)
Playcalling has been a perceived issue in past playoff games with the Ravens. Most feel Baltimore hasn’t run the ball enough.
Todd Monken has Derrick Henry in the backfield. It’s the ultimate no-brainer. Like I said about Mixon, whether the Ravens are up and down, they can’t forget about Henry.
Henry o20.5 Rushing Attempts (-130)
