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It’s a dangerous living picking a bunch of road teams, whether favorites or underdogs, but this week, I’m leaning into the road favorites.
USC -7.5 at Maryland
This seems like a spread begging you to take USC, which means you should “run away from the smell,” but that’s not the case here. The Terps are coming off an inexcusable 37-10 home loss to Northwestern.
A lot has been made out of Big Ten schools flying across time zones, but it won’t make a difference in this case.
Pick: USC -7.5
LSU -2.5 at Arkansas
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but LSU has been getting undersold. The Tigers are on a five-game winning streak since losing the opener against USC. The Tigers know the next two games, at Arkansas and at Texas A&M, will go a long way toward deciding if they are a playoff team.
Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier threw for over 300 yards last week, but he also threw two interceptions. That’s how Arkansas can win this game. If the Tigers turn the ball over and the defense is leaky, the Razorbacks will make this a final-possession game.
Pick: LSU -2.5
Texas -4.5 vs Georgia
It’s not all that long ago that I would have never believed that Texas was favored over Georgia, no matter where the game was played, but here we are.
Last week, the Longhorns smoked rival Oklahoma while Georgia had a ho-hum 10-point win over Mississippi State. It’s easy to overthink this if you don’t want to believe your eyes. Your eyes tell you that Texas is the better team that can get more stops on defense when it counts than Georgia.
Pick: Texas -4.5
Iowa -5.5 at Michigan State
This is another line that comes off rather stinky. Why isn’t Iowa favored by more? Michigan State is on a three-game losing streak, while this Hawkeyes team can score points against an average to below-average defense. That’s what the Spartans are.
Pick: Iowa -5.5
