The Eastern Conference Finals starts tonight in Boston as the Celtics take on the Indiana Pacers.
The Celtics are heavy favorites (-900) to return to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2022.
The Pacers face a daunting challenge; the Celtics will have to lose this series, a possibility that can’t be ruled out.
Ask Boston about last season when they let the Miami Heat upset them. To make it worse, the Heat won Game 7 in Boston.
How can Boston avoid a repeat of last season’s upset?
It starts with staying focused and reducing turnovers.
Boston’s individual talent is both its blessing and its curse. It’s part of why Jayson Tatum is in the 76th percentile in Turnover Percentage during the playoffs (per Cleaning the Glass), while Jaylen Brown and Peyton Pritchard are in the 7th percentile.
It’s why, as much as -900 makes the Celtics an overwhelming favorite, the Pacers still have a fighting chance, especially if the pace is frenetic.
Derrick White has avoided the turnover bug—White’s Turnover Percentage is in the 94th percentile. Add in White’s 2P%, 3P%, and eFG%, and the value of his contribution jumps off the page.
There’s also the Kristaps Porzingis injury. Judging by most reports, Porzingis will miss at least the series’ first two games. Porzingis provides the Celtics with floor spacing, which could be significant in this series to draw the likes of Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam away from the basket. Porzingis is a solid rim protector on defense, finishing in the 88th percentile in Block Percentage.
How much do we know about the playoff version of the Boston Celtics?
Boston faced the Miami Heat without Jimmy Butler and the Cleveland Cavaliers without Jarrett Allen, along with two missed games by Donovan Mitchell.
The same can be said for the Indiana Pacers, who eliminated the Milwaukee Bucks without Giannis Antetokounmpo, and a New York Knicks team without most of its starting lineup.
As the NBA enters the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, how much wiggle room do the Celtics have if they fail to win the championship this season? Boston is one of three teams over the second apron, which heavily restricts what the Celtics can do to add to the team.
With teams like the New York Knicks looking to add during the offseason, there’s no guarantee that the Celtics will face the same weak Eastern Conference they faced this season.
This season could be the most important for this version of the Boston Celtics, especially considering that the Western Conference representative will be a team (Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks) that lacks NBA Finals experience.
The time is now for the Celtics.
There’s no denying that.
