Free Throw Line:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s playoff free throw attempts have been discussed for the last two seasons. Just like with Jalen Brunson, coaches have complained about the calls Gilgeous-Alexander receives.
After two playoff rounds, Gilgeous-Alexander is attempting 8.7 free throws per game. That’s slightly up from last year’s 8.1.
For Minnesota, it starts with not bailing him out when he’s isolated with his back to the basket. Gilgeous-Alexander is more crafty around the basket than explosive. He lives off of touching your body and getting in his bag to draw contact.
The Timberwolves have multiple bodies that they can throw at Gilgeous-Alexander to help wear him down, but the bodies can’t waste fouls just because they have fouls to waste.
Zone Defense
Playing the NBA’s version of zone defense becomes an option when your opponent is shooting slightly under 32% from three.
Minnesota’s head coach, Chris Finch, should be as creative as he wants on defense because the Thunder are struggling mightily from the three-point line.
The Thunder’s struggles from long distance and some untimely missed free throws were the only reason the Nuggets series went seven games.
Oklahoma City’s struggle against zones is self-sabotage. When you have Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and the option to put Isaiah Hartenstein in the dunker spot, the struggle shouldn’t exist.
The Thunder self-sabotage with their love for settling for the three-point shot. Part of the reason is that the Thunder can’t roll out explosive wings who can use natural talent to attack. For example, Jalen Williams is 50% (22-44) on layups in the playoffs, including a paltry 2-11 on driving layups.
If Finch can prove that he has the Midas touch for when to implore the zone, the Thunder could continue to struggle on offense for long stretches.
Who Wears Down?
No one has worn down their opponent in the playoffs more than the Minnesota Timberwolves, but that comes with an asterisk.
In the first two rounds, the Timberwolves faced teams with key older players with a lot of worn tread on the tires. That included the likes of LeBron James, Draymond Green, and Steph Curry before he got hurt.
That won’t be the case with the Thunder, who wore down the Nuggets by playing hard, physical defense for 48 minutes.
The fourth quarter will be crucial in this series.
In the Thunder’s case, would that be a sign to try to draw fouls to make up for shooting woes? Will the refs swallow the whistle?
Will the Timberwolves have enough legs to get crucial threes from Naz Reid, Dante DiVincenzo, and Anthony Edwards?
Fourth-quarter decision-making will determine the close games.
Prediction:
Oklahoma City’s struggles shooting the ball is a major concern. Yes, the Thunder’s defense travels and will always keep them in games and win them their share, but this series is shaping up to be the one where it bites them.
Minnesota’s run last season should help them in this spot. If Anthony Edwards increases his number of drives to the basket, I don’t see how the Thunder win the series.
The Timberwolves’ acquisition of Julius Randle gives this team an extra chip to play with.
Timberwolves in Six
