We are in full-blown mock draft season, and the NBA Draft Lottery is out of the way.
How we do it at MTC Media differs slightly from most other places.
We focus on the player we think the team should draft rather than predicting who the team will draft. Yes, there is often a heavy amount of crossover, but explaining the thought process before you read it is good.
This initial Mock Draft will examine the top 10 picks. As time passes, we will work through the entire first round.
Dallas Mavericks – Cooper Flagg (Duke)
Dallas’ roster is perfect for Flagg because it provides him time to grow. As much as some fans wanted Flagg to go to a roster where he’s seen as the savior, he isn’t ready for that. Plus, what fans don’t consider is a front office’s ability to put players around someone of his talent.
Having a bonified NBA star like Anthony Davis will help. Davis, Kyrie Irving, and Klay Thompson have all been champions on this level.
There’s no need for Dallas to run the offense through Flagg. A team like Charlotte or Washington would have thrusted him into a position, offensively, that he might not be ready for.
Jason Kidd can use some of his creativity with the primary ball-handling responsibilities until Irving returns from injury.
He can use Flagg’s ability to see the floor to get them into early offense and then have Davis be the conductor. Flagg was judicious with his number of dribbles at Duke, but that’s not necessarily a given in the NBA.
Davis’ presence, along with Thompson’s ability to shoot the three (39.1% last season), will create lanes for Flagg.
I can’t say this enough. As much as fans don’t want to hear this, Flagg isn’t ready for “all eyes on me” on the offensive end yet. Going to Dallas ensures that Flagg won’t be put in that position.
Putting Flagg in ball screen action on the defensive end should be interesting to watch, but again, this is where going to Dallas plays in his favor.
The Mavericks have multiple rim protectors, including Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively.
Dallas winning the lottery might be the best thing that happened to Flagg.
San Antonio Spurs – Dylan Harper (Rutgers)
We are operating on the assumption that the Spurs keep the pick. Giannis Antetokounmpo may be available, and if San Antonio gets involved, there’s a good chance that this pick goes to Milwaukee.
But, for now, this is San Antonio’s pick, and Spurs fans should be excited by the prospect of teaming up Harper with Victor Wembanyama and DeAaron Fox.
One of Harper’s strengths is that his game transfers to a team where he won’t be asked to be one of the top offensive players. Like Flagg, going to an organization that doesn’t need him to save them is a blessing.
Philadelphia 76ers -Ace Bailey (Rutgers)
I went back and forth between Bailey and Edgecomb, but Bailey won out because of his core skillset.
Bailey received a lot of criticism in college, but like everything, there needs to be context. What Bailey was asked to do was always going to translate better in the NBA, where he would play more of a role and not be asked to be everything, especially on offense.
Everything starts with Joel Embiid’s health, so if he can play 55+ games, that’s a start. Tyrese Maxey has turned into a top-flight primary ball handler. Both will contribute to Bailey’s success.
One thing that worked against Bailey at Rutgers was how “small” the court was. Most college basketball programs aren’t beacons of professional-level spacing.
The extra space will make Bailey’s shot selection look better. It’s why pouring over the Rutgers’ film isn’t an apples-to-apples translation.
Bailey is the type who will flourish with a defined role that is more than what he was asked to do in college.
Charlotte Hornets – VJ Edgecomb (Baylor)
My biggest worry about Edgecomb’s translation to the NBA has little to do with Edgecomb. It has more to do with him having play with LaMelo Ball.
Ball isn’t concerned about playing winning basketball, and if Charlotte’s head coach, Charles Lee, wants to turn things around, he has to get Ball to buy into playing differently.
On paper, pairing up Edgecomb with Brandon Miller is a win-win. Edgecomb’s willingness to play defense should coincide with Miller’s effort to play defense, even if he’s doing it poorly.
That leaves Ball and his unwillingness to play defense as the issue.
How Lee helps develop Edgecomb’s offense will determine his first extension ceiling. Lee will need to allow Edgecomb to grow on that end of the floor, which will take patience all the way up to the front office.
Utah Jazz – Jeremiah Fears (Oklahoma)
If you believe in the building ability of Danny Ainge, you have to love Fears in this spot.
Yes, some aren’t sold on Fears, but I’m sold on Fears being paired with Will Hardy and his staff. Hardy has an extension that runs through 2030-31, so there isn’t pressure to develop fast. If Hardy can get Fears’ playmaking decision-making to the next level, the Jazz will have a steal in a lottery where losing out of the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes can be easily viewed as a disappointment.
The Jazz have a treasure trove of assets, allowing Ainge to flip the switch when he thinks Utah is in a position to take the next step. This all plays in Fears’ favor.
Washington Wizards – Tre Johnson (Texas)
Washington needs someone who can be a pro scorer, and Johnson fits the bill.
Johnson is made to come off NBA actions and be a legitimate shooter. He fits in the Wizards’ timeline, and it’s a big box to check.
Similar to Bailey, evaluators need to consider the cores of the college offense he played in before nitpicking him. When you look at how his strengths translate to a league with better spacing, you can see why falling in love with Johnson is easy.
New Orleans Pelicans – Collin Murray-Boyles (South Carolina)
I can only hear the “too high” mob screaming at me, but hear me out. What do the Western Conference Finals participants have in common?
They are the top two in Defensive Rating teams in the playoffs. Defense is the way to get through the West even if it’s not the way to get through the East.
The Pelicans were 29th in Defensive Rating and Defensive Rebound Percentage.
Murray-Boyles is an NBA-style perimeter defender who doesn’t need the ball in his hands. With or without Zion Williamson, the Pelicans have enough offense-first players.
Brooklyn Nets – Kasparas Jakucionis (Illinois)
Let’s start with his offense. In the NBA, it’s more about being quick enough in small spaces than being fast. Jakucionis has the potential to be that player.
Most concentrate on his ability to shoot, and yes, that should earn him the notoriety it does, but it takes away from his ability to pass, especially off the bounce. It gives him the potential to be good as the ball handler in ball screen action.
The concern here is on the defensive end of the floor. Who can Jakucionis guard in the NBA? He would need to be with a coach who has a defensive philosophy that can cover for him.
Toronto Raptors – Khaman Maluach (Duke)
I’m keeping my fingers crossed that this plays out. Of course, Maluach could be off the board by the Raptors’ selection.
His fit on the roster seems too good to be true.
First of all, if you’re a box score pirate, you won’t appreciate where his ceiling truly is. His numbers at Duke aren’t going to jump off the page, but they were impacted by the system and style more than anything else.
That isn’t a criticism of Jon Scheyer. His job is to win games at Duke, and he did that, but sometimes, that means a player doesn’t necessarily have his strengths on display. Maluach falls into that category.
He has the potential to be a plus defender on the perimeter. However, I have mixed reviews on his rim protection numbers at Duke because he had limited opportunities to show those skills. Throughout the ACC season, Duke overwhelmed their opponents, so it’s hard to criticize Maluach, but he will need to learn how to protect the rim without fouling on the NBA level.
On offense, he will be a work in progress, but here’s where the international experience should come into play. If there is something he will do if he knows the offense and makes the right play in it, that should buy him time as he finds out what his offense looks like on the NBA stage.
Houston Rockets – Egor Demin (BYU)
Demin’s projection has some significant variance. I’ve seen everything from low lottery to around the 20s.
Remember that the Rockets have also been mentioned in the Antetokounmpo Sweepstakes, so the rotation could look different.
The benefit for both parties is the ability to be patient. We saw that with Reed Shephard. Shepard had a big summer league, and you would have thought he would be the next Bob Cousy.
The Rockets are a playoff team, and the rotation reflects that. This will allow players like Shepard and Demin to comfortably learn roles in the NBA.
With more space in the NBA, Demin is a willing passer who should be a plus player in that category.
Defensively, he’s a work in progress (I’m trying to be nice). No one can fix that better than Ime Udoka. If you’re in Houston, you’re going to learn.
