Conference Championship weekend is here! Here are my picks for this weekend.
Georgia (-5) against Alabama.
The line shows Georgia because of the all around potential that Georgia has shown. They can win a football game in any way. Georgia’s main attribute is that they don’t make many mistakes. They pride themselves in being perfect in these games.
Alabama on the other hand has shown that they can be weak, they can get beat to the punch, and that can lead to them getting behind in games. Just last week, Auburn showed what it means to beat Alabama. They ran the ball, converted on Alabama mistakes, and found the pressure point of Milroe.
Jalen Milroe has single handedly won Alabama games this season, but he also has costed them possessions. He frequently finds his comfort areas of the field. For him these are the soft spot in the pocket, and any time that he’s rolling out right. If Georgia can key in on these, expect a good day for this Georgia defense.
One thing Saban does well is figuring out the weakness of the other team and attacking. Georgia’s main weakness is their run blocking against good fronts. This will be influential in Saban’s gameplan. He will look to stop the run and force them into obvious passing situations.
In games that have slowed Carson Beck down (this kid is good, there is no stopping him) pressure has been at the forefront of it.
Alabama will try to force Georgia into obvious passing situations and then heat Beck up, hoping to get him off rhythm.
Prediction: Alabama +5
Florida State (-2) against Louisville.
This line may change if FSU backup Tate Rodemaker is ruled out.
Florida State got shot in the foot when Jordan Travis had that season ending injury. Since, they have been average on offense, but stellar on defense.
Their defense will have to carry them in this game because regardless of who is playing QB, Louisville will do a good job of confusing and pressuring.
Louisville will have to run the ball efficiently in order to win this game. They have to establish the ground and go from there.
Defensively Louisville has to get the skill players for FSU on the ground. They had their worst tackling performance of the season last week against Kentucky, grading at just 44.2 per PFF.
Louisville actually comes in as the better team IMO. Allowing this team to come in off a bad loss, with this as their Superbowl, is major.
Prediction: Louisville +2
Texas (-15) against Oklahoma State
Texas is the better team flat out. If Quinn Ewers plays reasonable and their defense gets pressure like they have all year, expect this game to be a 3+ score differnce.
Oklahoma State doesn’t do a single thing statistically better than Texas.
One issue for Texas all year has been playing down to their competition. If they do that against this team, this will be much closer come the 4th quarter.
Expect Texas to come out firing, not giving Oklahoma State a chance to win this game
Prediction: Texas -15
Michigan (-22) against Iowa.
This game is one of those that the Michigan starters will play, but once they score 20ish points, expect them to come out.
Iowa is statistically the worst offense CFB has ever seen. They rank 133rd in most categories.
Iowa’s point total is 7.5 currently. There is a good chance that Iowa doesn’t score.
Expect Michigan to win this game easily, but not covering due to taking their starters out.
Prediction: Iowa +22
