Rivalry week is upon us, with games Thursday-Saturday. While many of these games are rivalries, only a few matter for conference and/or the playoff race. With this being said, there may be some games that aren’t covered due to the importance of others.
Michigan hosts Ohio State for “The Game.” this game brings real chances for the Big Ten Championship and CFB playoffs for the winner.
Oregon hosts Oregon State. This is the final time these two teams will meet as members of the Pac-12. Oregon will clinch their spot in the Pac-12 Championship game with a win.
Kansas State hosts Iowa State. With a win, Kansas State would need Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to lose, or Texas to lose, to clinch their ticket into the Big 12 Championship.
Florida State heads to Florida. Florida State needs to win out to potentially make the playoffs (depending on what other teams in the top 5 do).
Washington hosts Washington State. Like Florida State, Washington needs to remain undefeated to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Previews
“The Game” is finally here. I broke the keys to the game down for both teams in my previous post but I will add more insight after watching more film this week.
For Michigan (-3), this game comes down to winning both lines of scrimmage and not putting pressure on your QB and WRs. It doesn’t matter how good the Ohio State pass defense is if they can run the ball like they did against Penn State. Michigan will be in control. And can they pressure McCord into poor decisions and bad throws?
For Ohio State (+3), limiting the run and causing McCarthy to beat you is vital. In their last two games, Michigan has shown they have issues at their tackle positions in pass pro.
Can JTT and Sawyer get to McCarthy, forcing him into bad throws? Also, can the OL hold up against this DL, and can the offensive game plan for OSU involve Marvin Harrison Jr and TreVeyon Henderson, helping McCord get comfortable early?
What will it come down to?
JJ McCarthy has yet to look like himself recently. I wonder if that’s due to injury, scheme, or something else. I know Jim Knowles (Ohio State DC) will do his best to make McCarthy struggle, as shown when McCarthy is pressured. His completion rate goes down to below 60%.
Ohio State will make McCarthy beat them, no question about it, and if he plays the way he has in the last two, they will come out on top. I also think Ryan Day will come up with enough points for the OSU offense.
Michigan’s offense only scored 20 points last week against Maryland, while their defense scored 11. Maryland outscored the Michigan offense, having only 15 total rushing yards. Ohio State will score 24-28 and hold Michigan to 20 or less. One thing that might change things is if the special teams scores.
Prediction: 27-20 Ohio State (Ohio State ML)
Oregon (-14) hosts Oregon State with the final Pac-12 meeting between the two. Oregon State looks to knock Oregon out of the Pac-12 title game and the potential for a playoff spot.
Oregon State, unfortunately, played Washington last week and played hard for 60 minutes. What’s left from that is typically a little. Oregon is more dominant at both lines of scrimmage than Washington, leading me to believe that Oregon will handle Oregon State.
Oregon also has so much to play for. Bo Nix will be a factor in this game, as Oregon State is 149th in passing yards allowed per game. Troy Franklin will take the top off of the OSU secondary, similar to the way Washington State did.
Prediction: 33-17 Oregon (Oregon -14)
Kansas State is hosting Iowa State. Kansas State (-10) looks to keep their Big 12 title hopes alive. They are currently tied for 2nd in the Big 12. They will be in with a win, a Texas loss, or an Oklahoma + Oklahoma State loss.
Kansas State has looked good as of late, only losing to Texas by 3 points at Texas.
Will Howard has been throwing the ball solidly, but their offense has come from their rushing attack.
They average almost 200 rushing yards per game. Strangely enough, this comes from their 2 QBs.
Will Howard and Avery Johnson have combined for 14 rushing touchdowns this season. That’s one more than RBs and WRs combined.
The defense is good for Iowa State, but their offense struggles.
They have no breakaway rushing threat, with one rusher averaging just over 45 yards per game and two rushers averaging just over 30 yards per game. They also only have two receivers with 40+ receptions. And finally, a QB who has a 63.4% completion rate. Kansas State will score and limit this Iowa State offense.
Prediction: 33-20 Kansas State (Kansas State -10)
Florida State (-6.5) heads into The Swamp to face Florida. Both teams are without their starting QB due to injury.
This means that we can throw what we have seen on tape out the window offensively.
What stays true is the defensive side of the ball, and one team is good enough and one team not so much.
Florida State is much better defensively, ranking in the top 25 in total defense, while Florida is ranked 91. The main difference is passing yards and, better yet, chunk plays. Florida has given up 20 pass plays of 40+ yards, which is 2nd worst in the country.
Florida State would’ve exploited this, but now, without Travis, they should lean more toward the run game. Florida doesn’t have a good run defense, either. They allow over 160 rushing yards per game and 5 yards per rush.
For Florida, you have to score due to the poor play from your defense. The best bet is getting Etienne and Montrell Johnson going, which will be essential to keep Max Brown comfortable.
All in all, it comes down to turnovers. These are two backup QBs starting in a huge rivalry. I can see the loud crowd leading to some offensive penalties for the Seminoles. These penalties will stall out drives, leading to punts. Turnovers/Turnovers on downs are critical. If Florida can force them, it’ll be close late in the fourth.
Prediction: 24-20 Florida State (Florida +6.5)
Washington hosts Washington State. Washington (-16.5) looks to remain undefeated, while Washington State looks to end the playoff hopes of their in-state rivals. Washington has played well as of late, most recently knocking off Oregon State.
In contrast, Washington State started very hot and has cooled down since Washington State came off a massive win over Colorado.
There will be points scored in this game. The total is around 70 points for some books.
I have two questions: will Washington hold Cam Ward and Co. to 30 points or less, and will Washington score 50?
Washington’s defense has struggled all year, helped so much by their offense; Cam Ward has led the Cougars to being 4th in passing yards. Cam Ward can dice up this defense, causing Washington to have to go punch for punch instead of it being the other way around.
The question is, can Washington State hold Washington to the same?
These two defenses are nearly identical, and the way to beat each is to run, cause more players in the run box, and throw to your receivers in 1-on-1 coverage. Washington is very good at exploiting man coverage without safety help, and we will see if Cam Ward can do the same.
Prediction: 42-37 Washington (Washington State +16.5)
Other Notable Games
Louisville (-7) vs Kentucky: If Louisville wins this weekend and the ACC Championship, they have a chance (pending chaos) to make the CFB playoff.
Texas (-12.5) vs Texas Tech: With a win, Texas clinches their spot in the Big 12 Championship game.
Tulane (-3.5) vs UTSA: Tulane will clinch their spot in the AAC Championship game with a win.
Best Bets
Missouri -7.5: Playing a defense that gives up 372 yards per game. Cody Schrader is on a tear as of late and will run it down Arkansas. Missouri is playing for a bowl game spot and will come out to play.
Louisville -7: At home, with a win to help them out in their chance to get to the playoff. They will stop the run and get to Devin Leary, leading him into bad throws and turnovers.
Florida +7 (buy a .5 point): The Swamp will be loud, and there will be trouble for Tate Rodemaker. Understanding the pressure on Florida State to win out due to Travis’ injury, they will play nervously.
