Yes, there are two more regular season weeks in college football.
Week 13 brings us the anticipated rivalries, while week 12 is more calm before the storm-type week. Nevertheless, we still have a few good matchups.
Starting with the game of the week, Oregon State hosts Washington. Oregon State (-2.5) has trended recently, while Washington still wins one-score games.
This matchup is also crucial for the Pac-12 race. If Washington wins, they will be in the Pac-12 title game. If they lose, next week’s matchup against Washington State will be more important than just a rivalry. One thing to watch out for in this game is how Washington performs against the Oregon State pass game. Oregon State has shown they can and will throw the ball all around, and Washington has demonstrated they can’t defend the pass well.
The keys to the game are how many stops Oregon State can get against this Washington team and whether D.J. Uiagalelei will turn the ball over.
He has 4 INT this season, and they will need him to keep the ball secure because points against this Washington team are essential. Home field for Oregon State is so important, and Washington has shown they can struggle at times on the road. The other significant variable in this is the fact that this is the last time Washington will play Oregon State in the Pac-12. There is something else to get the Beavers to play for.
My prediction is Oregon State ML. I wonder if I trust those points.
Moving to the ACC, Louisville heads to Miami to take on the Canes. Miami (+1) is coming off a close loss to Florida State, while Louisville comes in off a win over Virginia.
This game is important now because Louisville looks to be the team that will face Florida State in the ACC Championship game, but they have to win one more game. Miami started Emory Williams last week but suffered a serious arm injury that will keep him out for the rest of this season.
The Canes will look to Tyler Van Dyke, their early-season starter, to help knock off the Cardinals. Van Dyke was benched after their 20-6 loss against N.C. State, where he threw 3 INT.
The matchup to watch here is the Louisville run defense against the Miami run offense. Miami is talented enough to be in this game, but turnovers will kill them. Look for Mario Cristobal (Miami HC) to run the ball a lot to keep turnovers at a minimum.
Unfortunately, Louisville is a top-20 run defense and will only allow Miami to run some over them. On the other side, the story is similar. Miami is a top-15 run defense, and Louisville does like to run to set up the pass. Jack Plummer, a veteran quarterback, still has games where he isn’t great. He has a TD/INT ratio of 16/9, but the glaring statistic is that he also has six fumbles. If Miami can turn him over, they will have a good shot at winning this game.
Prediction: Louisville ML
Georgia is heading to Neyland to face Tennessee. Based on last week’s performances by both teams, this is expected to be a blowout. But Georgia (-10) is on the road, in a very hostile environment, against a team that has nothing to lose now.
Georgia has already clinched their spot in the SEC Championship game and will face Alabama. This means that they could be looking ahead to that.
Tennessee just got destroyed by Missouri, 36-7.
What will determine this game are turnovers and quick scores. Tennessee had three turnovers last week, 2 of which were on Missouri’s side of the field, meaning Tennessee was going in to score. And 1 was a pick 6 for the Missouri defense. These turnovers can’t happen against Georgia, or they will beat Tennessee just as badly.
The last important piece for Tennessee is the rushing yards given up to Missouri. The Vols gave up 255 rushing yards, which led to almost 40 minutes of possession of Missouri.
Again, this can’t happen against Georgia. Georgia will look to run the ball over and over again to keep the game low-scoring and move it along. One thing Kirby Smart wants more than anything is to finish the game in 3 hours or less. No business, go in, win, and get out.
The key to the game is Tennessee’s front 7 has to stop the run. If Tennessee has to put more defenders in the run box, they will give up big plays through the air.
Georgia is currently 9th in passing yards per game, and if Carson Beck gets a chance, he will throw it. Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey are getting healthier by the week, and they will tear this secondary up if the DBs and Safeties are on islands.
One thing to watch out for is that Carson Beck has yet to play a “bad” game. He’s a model of consistency, which is exactly what Georgia has needed.
But they have yet to play a good defense on the road. Their most challenging road game yet, aside from Auburn, was at Florida, which is statistically one of the worst defenses in the SEC. Keep an eye on Beck. If he makes the plays, they will win soundly. If he throws a couple of bad balls due to pressure, watch for the game to be very close in the 4th quarter.
Prediction: Tennessee is +10 and is coming off a bad loss at home against a rival. We saw what this crowd did to Alabama last year. If the crowd is in the game, it can get tricky for the Bulldogs.
Other games to look out for this week are:
In the Big 12, Texas @ Iowa State. The important piece in this game is Texas is currently 6-1 and leading the Big 12, and there are four teams at 5-2, and Iowa State is one of them.
Also, in the Big 12, Kansas faces Kansas St. If Kansas State wins, they will be 6-2 and tied for 1st if Texas was to lose.
In the Big Ten, Ohio State and Michigan are favored by large numbers. These aren’t upset alerts, but don’t be surprised if you look up the final and see both teams win by 7-10 points. They play each other next weekend, and I can tell you that’s what both teams have in their heads.
Early bets of the week (pending line movements):
Oregon -23
Tennessee +10
Utah ML
Louisville ML
Kansas +7.5
Georgia State +31.5
Oregon State ML
