Week 11 brings us some intense matchups for all of College Football. We have Michigan heading to State College, Tennessee to Columbia, Utah to Seattle, and Ole Miss to Athens.
Let us start with Tennessee (-2) heading to Columbia to take on Missouri. Tennessee is coming off a win over UCONN, where they dominated all game, and Missouri is coming off a loss to Georgia, where they stuck around until an INT was returned down to the 2-yard line late in the 4th.
The line looks questionable for Tennessee coming into Columbia and being favored. Most of this is due to the dubious star WR for Missouri, Luther Burden.
This can be a bad spot for a Missouri team that must get up from a hard-fought game last week and play another formidable opponent. There are two keys to this game.
The first key is how Missouri holds up against the Tennessee run game.
Tennessee averages 227 yards on the ground, which is good enough for 10th in FBS, while Missouri gives up around 115 yards.
The second key is how Brady Cook plays against this very sound defense for the Volunteers. Cook has thrown 5 TDs and 4 INTs through his last four games. This hasn’t been good for the Tigers because their offense has struggled to run the football. Look out for turnovers from Cook to be the deciding factor.
Prediction: Tennessee -2
Next, we head to the west coast for Washington against Utah.
Washington (-9.5) is the favorite to win the Pac-12, and another good team has the chance to stop them. The Utes are coming in off a big win over Arizona State, where they scored 55 points and held ASU to just 3.
Utah looks to knock off the Huskies with their methodical pace and dominant run game. Washington gives up 143 yards a game on the ground, and Utah rushes for close to 200. Keys to the game are time of possession for Utah and limiting big plays for Washington. Making Washington drive the entire field and wearing down their offense will benefit Utah. And for Washington, if they cannot stop the run, Utah will come out on top.
Prediction: Utah +9.5
Back in Athens, we will go with the Georgia Bulldogs taking on Ole Miss. Georgia (-11) looks to stop the Ole Miss win streak.
Ole Miss looks to present itself as a top team in the SEC with a win over the back-to-back National Champs.
The Rebels have now won 4 one-score games. Their 8-1 record has shown that they belong in the talk of top teams, but if they had lost one of these four games, their entire season could have been different. Georgia is still Georgia, and they keep getting better.
The best news for Georgia is that Bowers could return this weekend. Georgia dominates in all categories between the two teams.
The key to the game is the Georgia defense getting to Jaxson Dart with pressure and sacks. Pressuring Dart, a good, tough QB, is the best way to cause errant balls and long 3rd downs. The Georgia offense will score plenty of points. As long as they limit the Rebels, they will be fine.
Prediction: Georgia -11
The game of the week comes in the Big Ten, where Michigan is heading to State College to face Penn State.
As of now, Jim Harbaugh will be on the sidelines for the game. Michigan (-4) looks to continue its dominance this season, while Penn State looks to finally get over the hump and potentially be atop the Big Ten East.
There is a lot of juice in this game for both teams. For the Wolverines, the entire scandal has caused uproars in the CFB world. If Michigan were to lose, lots, and I mean lots, of people would believe that they cannot win without the supposed allegations of cheating.
For Penn State, James Franklin wants/needs to quiet the noise that he can’t beat good teams and that they will be 10-2 every single year.
So if both teams “need” to win, how does each team stop the other?
For Michigan, take the blueprint Ohio State laid out. Packing the box and making Drew Allar beat you with his arm. Allar has a rhythm issue. He’s a good feel player once he gets into the game’s rhythm. He needs quick throws to drive into the receiver’s chest to get him in this rhythm.
Joel Klatt explained this exceptionally well in his breakdown earlier this week. Using this against Penn State and looking to get them into obvious passing downs will benefit Michigan.
Penn State is using their 2nd ranked run defense to their advantage.
There is only a need to pack the box early in the game once Michigan shows they can run it on you.
Last year, Michigan had 400+ rushing yards in this game, but they aren’t the same team this year. They are 86th in rushing at 167 per game.
Trusting that your front seven will limit the run and key in on JJ McCarthy.
As much as people want to believe otherwise, McCarthy has done everything right this year. He has yet to make the mistakes like he did last year.
He’s trusting his reads and throwing to the open receiver. He also can run and indeed beat a team with his legs.
The best way for Penn State to limit him is to put them in obvious passing situations and, from there, heat McCarthy up.
This doesn’t mean 3rd and 4, more like 3rd and 6+. Make the receivers run 6 yards downfield so the pass rush can get there. Penn State needs to get to the QB and make him uncomfortable, as we saw from last year’s semi-final game against TCU.
McCarthy gets uncomfortable and starts to throw the ball in the wrong places. McCarthy has excelled tremendously over the offseason and has yet to be placed in that situation this season. He will do just fine as long as he has some time, he will make the right plays.
Keys to the game, Penn State’s front seven can’t allow Michigan to run all over them. If they do, it will turn out just like last year. Michigan must force Penn State into obvious passing situations and hope Allar doesn’t beat them.
Most importantly, Drew Allar must complete passes to open receivers and move the chains off the last point. Allar could have played better against Ohio State. He missed throws that all QBs at this level should make. Receivers were open, but he wasn’t in rhythm to hit them.
Look for Mike Yurcich to set up Allar to get him comfortable early whether this means throwing on first downs or having easy completions to TE or RB.
Another piece to look for to get Allar in rhythm would be routes like ins, posts, and slants.
These routes can get Allar in the game to make the deep throws outside the numbers when he needs to later in the game.
The final important factor in this game is Penn State’s home-field advantage.
In 2019, we saw that Michigan had to call a timeout on the game’s first play because the stadium was so loud. Look for that again come Saturday. Both teams have everything to prove, and in the end, it comes down to home-field advantage.
Prediction: Penn State +4
