Week 10 gets us another week closer to the CFB Playoffs. This week, we have some big matchups that will determine conference races.
12 PM Slate:
Texas (-4) vs Kansas St: Texas was without QB Quinn Ewers last week in a win against BYU. Ewers is week to week but doubtful to play in this matchup against Kansas St. The QB for Texas looks to be Maalik Murphy, who had a good showing last week, going 16/25 with 170 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. Kansas St is off a big win over a Houston team that gave Texas fits. Will Howard runs the show for K State, a dominant offense who ranks 18th in total yards and 13th in PPG, they excel in the run game with 226 yards per game on the ground, good enough for 14th. On the other hand, Texas has a good defense. The big matchup will be the 14th-best run offense against the 28th-best run defense. Sark is a good offensive mind, and if the defense can shut down that run game, Texas will win and cover.
Prediction: Texas -4
Notre Dame (-3) @ Clemson: This was a game last year in Indiana, with ND coming out on top 35-14. This year, it’s in Clemson, SC, but all eyes point to ND to get the job done. Clemson is 4-4 with losses to Duke, Florida St, Miami, and N.C. State. So we should just jump on ND, right? Eh, not so fast. Clemson has the real potential to be 6-2, just like ND, with a better statistical defense and a similar statistical offense. Dabo has gotten a lot of blowback for his comments, and while I disagree with him, the on-the-field play does the real talking. The big matchup is the ND run game against Clemson’s run defense. ND averages 164 yards on the ground, good for 97th, and Clemson gives up just 99 yards per game, good for 31st. The numbers may not look great, but ND likes to run to set up the pass, if Clemson can shut down the run game, like Louisville did, Clemson will win.
Prediction: Clemson +3
3:30 PM Slate
Oklahoma (-6) @ Oklahoma St: Bedlam. Bedlam. Bedlam. This is that kind of rivalry. Not as well known as Red River or OSU/Mich, but just as important. This game will be a good gauge for one of the teams who in the Big 12 championship game. Last year, Oklahoma won 28-13 in Norman, this year, it’s in Stillwater. This game looks to favor Oklahoma. They lead in all offensive statistical categories by a wide margin. Fortunately for Oklahoma St, the Sooners are coming in off a loss to Kansas with a backup QB. Kansas was able to hold Dillon Gabriel to 171 yards and 0 TDs. Although they did allow Oklahoma to run the ball a lot, it took time off the clock and caused Oklahoma to finish with 28 minutes of possession time, whereas Kansas had 31 minutes. That’s the blueprint for Oklahoma St, playing much better as of late, time of possession, and running the ball on the 97th-ranked run defense will give Oklahoma St the edge.
Prediction: Oklahoma St +6
7:30 PM Slate:
Washington (-3) @ USC: We all know that Washington has been the hottest team in the country and USC… not so much. Washington beat Oregon, who is one of the best teams in the country, while USC has lost to Utah and Notre Dame. This game is important for a few reasons. First is the Pac-12 race, Washington is first, and USC is second. If USC wins, they will be in first, and if Washington wins, they will stay in first. The second reason is draft stock. Recently, Caleb Williams hasn’t played his best, in his last three games, he’s thrown 3 TDs and 3 INT, and their record is 1-2. On the other hand, Michael Penix is playing well this season, currently leading the Heisman odds. But, since the win at Oregon in week 7, Penix has thrown 4 TDs and 3 INT. Both these players look to outduel the other with draft stock coming into play. The big question mark here is which defense plays better. Last week USC gave up 49 points to Cal, and Washington gave up 33 points to Stanford. If both teams play defense like last week, this game will be 55-50 come the end of the 4th. The team I’m leaning is USC, for a couple of reasons. The first is that Caleb Williams will perform. He’s not playing a good defense like Utah or ND, and he wants to show people he’s still the best QB in College Football. The other reason is that USC will run the ball. They will play a Big Ten style of offense which will result in taking time off the clock and just when you think you stop them, they have Caleb Williams. Look for MarShawn Lloyd to have a big game, leading the Trojans to a win.
Prediction: USC +3
