The AP preseason top 25 is like any other preseason poll.
It’s extremely premature. There will be teams that exceed their expectations while others will not live up either because they were overrated or their season changed because of injuries.
Team that could finish above their preseason ranking:
Before the Sam Hartman injury, I would have focused on Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are 23rd and depending on what happens to Hartman, they can easily finish the season out of the Top 25. I toyed around with Wisconsin but road games at Ohio State and Iowa scared me off.
That had me look out to the obvious…. USC. The Trojans check in at 14 with a realistic shot of finishing the season in the top 10.
It starts with Lincoln Riley’s arrival. The former Oklahoma coach should be able to recruit USC back to their glory days. He got off to a great start in the Transfer Portal where he brought over his Sooner quarterback, Caleb Williams along with former Pitt stud, wide receiver Jordan Addison.
The two will be a handful in the Pac 12.
The Trojans schedule sets up perfect for a top 10 finish. The first six games are winnable but you have to keep a careful eye on the trip to Stanford and the home date with Arizona State.
Game seven brings the huge matchup with at Utah followed by a week off before traveling to Arizona.
By the time USC meets Notre Dame at home, the Trojans will be fully indoctrinated in Riley’s system. It’s a real possibility that they’ll come into the game with the Irish with only one loss.
Team that could finish below their preseason ranking:
There are several teams that fall in this category. Lets start with BYU who comes in at 25 but has a schedule that includes Baylor, Oregon, Notre Dame and Arkansas.
I couldn’t settle on one team so I’ll group two teams together. Notre Dame (5) and Clemson (4).
The Irish’s new coaching staff has received a lot of attention. They’ve been flashy and full of headlines. It’s probably a bit unfair but the one time we saw new head coach, Marcus Freeman, in the head chair, Notre Dame was blowing away a big lead against Oklahoma State.
The Irish will start Tyler Buchner in it’s opener but there’s still questions about Buchner. Will his game be able to mature from a package-oriented, part-time role to a full-time starter?
Losing wide receiver Avery Davis (torn ligament) is a bigger loss than most realize.
If Notre Dame’s schedule was different, I wouldn’t be so concerned but this is a team that opens out at Ohio State. There’s neutral site game with an experienced BYU team, a home date with Clemson with a season finale at USC.
Whether the Irish can finish in the Top 5 mainly depends on the Ohio State game. A close loss will allow the Irish to lose a game or two and still have a shot at the Top 5. A bad loss could have the Irish perpetually stuck outside of that area if they incur another loss.
Clemson has to take a step back after losing Brent Venables (Oklahoma) and Tony Elliott (UVA). It’s hard to replace both coordinators in the same season no matter who the hires are.
Starting quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei is look to have a bounce-back season after getting off to a slow start. There are several reports saying, Uiagalelei has lost weight and improved his footwork.
Even with that, the jury’s still out on how dominant Clemson’s defense will have to be to help the offense.
Looking at Clemson’s schedule, if Hartman isn’t back and healthy, the game at Wake becomes much easier. The next week, Clemson will play NC State at home. Normally, that would be a penciled in win but Wolfpack quarterback, Devin Leary is poised to have a big season. Leary was named Preseason ACC Player of the Year.
Then there’s the trip to South Bend. My concern is Clemson losing a game or two to teams that they’ll be favored against. I just wasn’t willing to play the “Clemson only has two games on the schedule” card.
