Fighters: Keith Thurman vs Mario Barrios
Odds: Thurman -200; Barrios +1600
Location: Las Vegas
We haven’t seen Keith Thurman (29-1-0) in the ring since his loss to Manny Pacquiao. That was in 2019.
Prior to the loss to Pacquiao, Thurman had struggled in wins over Josesito Lopez (Majority Decision) and Danny Garcia (Split Decision).
It will be hard to tell what Thurman we will see but if I had to guess, he will try to box the first few rounds in his return.
“With or without a belt, I’m a champion and that’s the statement I’m making Saturday night.”
Thurman’s confidence is typical Thurman but ring rust is real and it could be something Mario Barrios could take advantage of.
Just like Thurman, Barrios (26-1-0) is coming off a loss to a great champion. There’s no doubt that Barrios took the first four rounds against Gervonta Davis. Early on, Barrios did a good job at getting off first and throwing combinations but eventually Davis downloaded enough data to change the tenor of the fight.
Davis took cut Barrios in the fifth and floored in the eighth. The fight was stopped in the 11th round.
Thurman Keys
- Dictate the Pace – Controlling emotions will be key for Thurman. He’ll burn some energy because of the excitement of being back in the ring but once the fight gets started, he’ll need to stay under control without being too cautious. The last thing Thurman wants to do is mail away the first four or five rounds by not doing enough work.
- Can’t let guard down – In his loss to Pacquiao, Thurman let his guard down for what seemed like a split second and he found himself on the canvas. We don’t know how much power Barrios will carry to 147 but Thurman can’t take the chance at giving up a flash knockdown.
- Balance – I can’t blame for Thurman for wanting a knockout. Who wouldn’t? He talks a ton of trash. He’s going to want to announce himself in a spectacular way but he can’t go for the knockout too early. Getting in rounds could help him down the road and whether he likes it or not, it will take some time to get back in a rhythm.
Barrios Keys
- Early Test – Barrios should come out and pressure Thurman early. Taking advantage of any type of ring rust will probably come early. It paid off early on against Davis as he built a lead.
- Bunches in the Pocket – Barrios has to throw punches in bunches when he’s inside. He can’t allow Thurman to hold and rest or let him get off his punches first. Barrios probably can’t hurt Thurman with one punch so putting his punches together will be a necessity.
- Lesson Learned – As the Davis fight wore on, Barrios made mistake after mistake which led to his demise. That has to be a lesson learned. Thurman might not have the power Davis has but we also don’t know if Barrios can handle 147 power.
Prediction:
I’m very tempted to take Barrios but I just can’t pull the trigger. Give me Thurman in a late round stoppage.
