Another game, another North Carolina meltdown. This time it happened in Atlanta with an inexcusable 72-67 loss to Georgia Tech.
Over the last two seasons, the expectations for North Carolina have been out of whack. A lot of last season’s woes were swept under by injuries especially the one to Cole Anthony but that team was incredibly flawed starting with the lack of perimeter shooting. All the excuse making made people turn a blind eye to reality. This team wasn’t very good. It never was. If healthy, they wouldn’t have been a 14-win team but they weren’t going to cut down the nets either (if there was an NCAA tournament).
This season is following the same script. Erratic perimeter shooting. Questionable decision making late in close games. Last but not least is their inability to play consistent defense especially when teams put them in pick and roll dooms them in a pick-and-roll era.
So how did we get here? Why are people making the same mistakes in evaluating the program?
The answer is simple. People equate four and five stars into one-and-done talent. This antiquated way of evaluating a program has caused media and fans to apply faulty expectations.
When you look at the Tar Heels roster, the only one-and-done player on it is Day’Ron Sharpe. Caleb Love, RJ Davis, Walker Kessler, Puff Johnson, and Kerwin Walton shouldn’t say anything about the NBA unless in NBA2K.
A lot of it is based on how the NBA has changed. When you combine the investment in guaranteed contracts, the NBA G-League, team friendly rookie contracts, and the G-League Select Team (Ignite), the league is no longer in a hurry for rookies to contribute.
Remember when everyone thought it was foregone conclusion that the NBA and NBPA were going to bring back the none-and-done? How much of that talk have you heard lately? There’s no reason for the NBA or NBPA to change the draft eligibility rules. If a high-level prospect isn’t offered a Select contract, playing international basketball is a realistic option that should be explored. Why that over college? Because more and more NBA scouts show that among young players, international experience has more value than college talent. Cade Cunningham could’ve played for the G-League Select team but chose not to, which shouldn’t be a shock when you consider that Oklahoma State hired his brother on the coaching staff.
So how does this help North Carolina? If you look at all of Roy Williams most successful teams, they’ve been predicated on high-level talent that chose to stay in school.
Williams National Championship have been built on experience
2005 – Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants, and Sean May were all juniors.
2009 – Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington were juniors. Danny Green, Deon Thompson, and Tyler Hansbrough were all seniors.
2017 – Theo Pinson, Joel Berry II, and Justin Jackson were juniors. Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks were seniors.
With more teams having higher level experience, Williams isn’t going to significantly win with a roster full of young guys playing major roles. It’s not just limited to Williams. John Calipari is having one of his worse starts as a head coach. He can blame the schedule all he wants but he’s having he same issues Williams is having.
The savior for Williams will be the change in the way the NBA operates. With high level players no longer expecting to leave after one year, Williams can afford to take his lumps with them knowing they’ll be back in year two. It would be shocking if another player other than Sharpe leave unless they pull a Nassir Little and leave earlier than they should.
If the Tar Heels retain the young players that they should and they improve in things like, lets say, perimeter shooting and defense, then you have a team on the cusp of being an Elite Eight threat. If a few, not all, return for their junior years combined with top recruits who don’t need to be rushed into minutes, then you have a team that could win a National Championship.
So Williams and the Tar Heels will take some more lumps as the season goes on. It’s inevitable. But, of all things, Williams and the Tar Heels fan base can take solace in the certainty of retention thanks to the NBA.
