It’s May and there’s no sports so this is the perfect time to look at the NFL over/under in wins.
Is it too early? Of course.
But from a gambling perspective this is the best time to lay a bet if you think the numbers are off.
We start with the AFC and the defending champions, Kansas City Chiefs
2020 NFL win totals (via William Hill)
Baltimore Ravens 11.5
Under 11.5
The Ravens are looking at 10-11 wins. The AFC Central should be better this season and the league will adjust to Lamar Jackson.
Kansas City Chiefs 11.5
Over 11.5
It’s natural to have a let down after winning the Super Bowl but Kansas City is still the class of the AFC West. The Chiefs could be in the same position that the Patriots had been in the AFC East. Expect the Chiefs to get, at least, four division wins.
Buffalo Bills 9
Push
I was looking for a reason to knock the Bills because I’m not a believer in Josh Allen because I think he’s who we saw in the fourth quarter of the Houston Texans playoff game. The expectation this with Tom Brady gone, the Bills are next in line to win the AFC East but as Lee Corso is famous for saying “not so fast my friend”.
New England Patriots 9
Push
Tom Brady… Gone. Rob Gronkowski… Gone. Who isn’t gone? Bill Belichick. IT’s hard not to get the feeling that he’ll figure this out. Call me crazy but the Patriots won’t fall as far as many think.
Pittsburgh Steelers 9
Over 9
Mike Tomlin’s didn’t get nearly enough credit for Pittsburgh’s success last season. Despite all of the injuries, the Steelers managed to win eight games. If Ben Roethlisberger is healthy, Pittsburgh could win the division.
Cleveland Browns 8.5
Over 8.5
This is one of the tougher ones. I never thought that last season was Cleveland’s breakout season. It always felt like this season would be the season for them. The only thing holding this team back from 10 wins is the division they play in. Browns will end the season with 8 or 9 wins. That what makes the 8.5 such a tough line.
Indianapolis Colts 8.5
Over 8.5
If Philip Rivers can cut down on the turnovers then this is a 10 win team. Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor should be able to do enough to take the pressure off Rivers. Adding rookie wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. to Jack Doyle and TY Hilton gives the Colts a passing game to be reckoned with.
Tennessee Titans 8.5
Under 8.5
Why the under? Ryan Tannehill will turn back into Ryan Tannehill. Look for the entire team to take a step back including Derrick Henry.
Houston Texans 8
Push
Bill O’Brien has done everything in his power to ruin this team. You have to feel for DeShaun Watson. DeAndre Hopkins is out. In is David Johnson. A running back with very little tread left on his tires. The wide receiving core is Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, and Kenny Stills… Woof.
Denver Broncos 7.5
Under 7.5
The Broncos are looking to be more explosive on offense to match a defense that has in pretty good position. That makes an eight win season within reach.
Las Vegas Raiders 7.5
Over 7.5
There’s no reason why I should pick the over… but I’m picking the over. The Raiders still need work on their defense but it’s the quarterback position that will be interesting to watch. We all know Jon Gruden never marries a quarterback so how secure is Derek Carr when Marcus Mariota is sitting in the wings.
Los Angeles Chargers 7.5
Under 7.5
Speaking of quarterback situations, the Chargers are looking like they’ll depend on Tyrod Taylor. Justin Herbert is the quarterback of the future but head coach, Anthony Lynn, needs a quarterback of the present.
New York Jets 6.5
Under 6.5
This was a tough one because I wanted a road to the over but I just don’t see it especially if Sam Darnold gets hurt. The Jets roster looks better and they don’t have Tom Brady to mess with but I don’t see this as a seven win team.
Miami Dolphins 6
Over 6
This was a complicated pick. I’m all in on head coach Brian Flores. I’m all-out on quarterback Ryan Fitzgerald. Sure, the Dolphins will win a game or two they shouldn’t win but with Fitzgerald at quarterback, they could lose 3-4 that they should win. Either the Dolphins or Jets will hit the over… did I pick the right one?
Cincinnati Bengals 5
Under 5
Nothing against Zac Taylor but I hope Cincinnati appreciates Marvin Lewis a little more. It’s hard to win with that organization and, contrary to most, I’m not totally sold on Joe Burrow.
Jacksonville Jaguars 4.5
Over 4.5
If there was a team that should’ve taken a chance at Cam Newton, it was Jacksonville. Instead, they wanted a backup that would make Gardner Minshew comfortable instead of having a quarterback who would’ve relegated Minshew to the bench. They won’t win over 4.5 nor do they deserve to.
