Very few freshman live up to the hype the second they step on the floor. Cole Anthony has done just that. It started with an electrifying game against Notre Dame and it hasn’t stopped since. Anthony has scored 20+ or more in his first three games. His 27.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists a game is about as good as a freshman can be at a marquee program.
But if North Carolina wants to be near the top of the ACC and make a significant run in March, it has to be more than just Anthony.
Injuries
The first step would be for the Tar Heels to get healthy. Sterling Manley, Brandon Robinson, Anthony Harris, and Jeremiah Francis are all out with injuries. Their return date is uncertain. To be fair, we don’t know how much Harris and Francis were slated to contribute this season but we can assume that they would’ve received some time in the non-conference schedule. Robinson and Manley are a different story. Robinson averaged about 12 minutes a game last season and was looking at an expanded role this season. Manley only appeared in 18 games last season but there was no doubt, he was going to play a major part in Roy Williams’ “two big” lineup. Right now, it’s been all on Garrison Brooks and, freshman, Armando Bacot.
Transfers
With the Heels losing so many major contributors from last season, Williams dipped into the transfer market. Just like most transfers, it’s going to take some time to get into the flow with the returning players. Christian Keeling showed some signs against Gardner-Webb. The Charleston-Southern transfer scored nine points on 4-9 shooting. Turnovers are still a concern with Keeling. William & Mary transfer, Justin Pierce is 5-12 from the three point line in his first three games. Pierce went 7-12 for 18 points against UNC-Wilmington. The Seahawks are a familiar opponent to Pierce from his Colonial Athletic Conference days.
Offensive Concerns
It’s early on so there’s no reason to panic but it should be pointed out that there are some dips that show a little concern on the offensive end. The Heels have been known for their offensive rebounds under Williams. Their OR% took a dip last season and it continues to do so. From 2015 to 2018, the Heels were top five in OR%. Last season they finished 16th. This season the Heels are currently 58th.
North Carolina will need to improve in that category especially when the Heels 2P% is the lowest it’s been since Williams took over. The Heels are shooting a dismal 44.8% from 2-point range. That’s good for 252nd in the country. It also explains why the Heels are 164th in eFG%.
Those percentages could go up if the Heels can increase Brooks’ shot attempts. The 6′ 9″ junior has yet to have double-digit field goal attempts in a game this season. Last season, he only had two but that was acceptable considering how last season’s roster was constructed. This season, Brooks needs to be a bigger part of the offense especially with their current injury state.
Killer B’s
Leaky Black and Bacot will need to be even bigger on the offensive end. Last season, Black was robbed of valuable experience because of injury. His contribution for the Heels comes from more than just points. He’s that guy who is always a couple of rebounds and assists from flirting with a triple-double. So his increased offensive contribution can’t be just measured by points. It’s somewhat the same for Bacot. On the offensive end, keeping possessions alive with offensive rebounds and tip-outs are needed especially with the Heels struggles shooting the ball. The Heels are 150th in TO% so even extra possessions they can get will be welcomed.
Conclusion
Next month, the Tar Heels schedule takes even a bigger leap. They’ll go through a five-game stretch that includes Alabama, Ohio State, UVA and Gonzaga. The realistic expectation is for North Carolina to find a way to take three of the four games. That won’t happen unless they find a way to get Anthony more help.
