So we are heading into Monday Night with two number one seeds battling for the National Championship. Both teams are big. Both teams have depth. Both teams like to blow big leads. They have so much in common that it hurts.
Jason McIntyre of the Big Lead hinted on Twitter that Gonzaga had an easy road. This sent the Twitterverse in to a frenzy but when you look at their road and UNC’s road, it isn’t close. The Tar Heels played the tougher teams but what does that really mean? It means nothing. There’s no BCS committee that will decide who gets to dance around to “One Shining Moment”.
With the Tar Heel’s Joel Berry II noticeably injured, most of the experts are leaning towards Gonzaga. Like Charles Barkley said, if Berry II’s ankles couldn’t heal with a week’s rest, then what are they going to be with 48 hour rest? Coach Roy Williams showed in the win versus Oregon that he isn’t willing to put total trust in Britt and even less in Seventh Woods. Berry II logged 35 minutes against Oregon, just how effective can he be on Monday.
The injury to Berry II has contributed to the Tar Heel’s poor shooting throughout the tournament. Berry II is 17-60 from the field in the tournament. Theo Pinson, who isn’t a big scorer is 7-22 and Nate Britt is 8-18. Isaiah Hicks played well in the first round against Texas Southern but he’s been 9-29 since. Those aren’t championship numbers. Kennedy Meeks and Justin Jackson are the reason they’re playing Monday night.
Gonzaga’s run has been a little difference. With each game, they have shown snap shots of brilliance. Their biggest problem has been blowing leads. Northwestern and South Carolina both erased big Bulldog second half leads an got back in the game. The Zags also played a close game against West Virginia despite the fact that the Mountaineers shot 26%
So what will determine the winner on Monday Night?
North Carolina Tar Heels
- Rebounding – The Tar Heels haven’t shot the ball consistent in their last four games. They have been bailed out by offensive rebounding but they will face the biggest team they’ve faced all season. The Bulldogs can roll out bigs just as much as the Tar Heels can. Meeks, Hicks and Bradley must be able to score in the paint. Maye is more of a stretch player at this point in his career.
- Defense – Tar Heels turned the game around against the Ducks when they played more aggressive on defense. Coach Williams showed a little “jump trap” and when the Tar Heels scrambled and rotated they caused turnovers. They will need to do the same to neutralize Williams-Goss.
- Bench – Part of the reason Meeks was so effective against Oregon was because Bradley gave the Tar Heels some key minutes in the second half. Williams wrapped Bradley’s minutes around a Media Timeout and that gave Meeks enough rest of play the rest of the game. The bench produced 9 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists and only 2 turnovers in the Final Four win over Oregon.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
- 3 Point Shooting – The Zags are 21-43 from the 3 point line in their last two games (wins over Xavier and South Carolina). Knocking down the 3 ball will open up passing lanes for the bigs. Even more important, it will prevent the Tar Heels from doubling down in the lane.
- Turnovers – The only reason the West Virginia game was close was because the Zags turned the ball over 16 times. When they protect the ball, especially in transition, you can see how explosive this offense can be. When they face a team that is struggling shooting the ball like North Carolina, the last thing you want them doing is gaining confidence from live ball turnovers. Limit the turnovers and the Bulldogs will take a major step towards a championship.
- Free Throws – In their final four win, South Carolina went to the line 22 times compared to the Zags 13 attempts. West Virginia stayed in the game because they went 21-29 from the free throw line. Gonzaga will need to keep North Carolina off the free throw and stay out of foul trouble.
Prediction
On the surface, this looks like the game where Gonzaga finally gets over the top. They will be facing a dinged up North Carolina team that has struggled since the second half versus Duke in the ACC Tournament. Gonzaga can match North Carolina’s size. They are currently better in the backcourt. If the Tar Heels push the pace, Gonzaga will be cool with that.
What Gonzaga doesn’t have is the experience North Carolina has. Jim Calhoun won a National Championship the first year UConn got to the Final Four. Can Gonzaga do the same?
North Carolina has the best player on the floor in Justin Jackson. Jackson has led the Tar Heels throughout the season and the tournament and will cause Gonzaga problems. The Tar Heels will be able to push the pace up and get into transition. Neither team has faced a team as big as them but North Carolina’s bigs are more skilled. North Carolina will stay out of foul trouble and do just enough to get Roy his third National Championship.
North Carolina 81-77
Marcus “Mook” Washington is the host of Making The Cut. Follow Mook on Twitter: @mtcwithmook and IG: MTCWithMook
