Last week was a bounce back week. Should’ve been 3-1 if it wasn’t for the late scores Oregon gave up that allowed UVA to cover. This is a great time to get on the train as it is moving in the right direction.
Baylor -30 at Rice (Friday)
Big spreads are always risky especially if it is the last game before the conference season begins so most of the time I would steer clear of a game like this but, under Jim Grobe, the Baylor train seems to keep rolling. The Bears first road game shouldn’t present of challenge in the win/loss column but might present one in the ATS column.
Against SMU, Baylor had 261 yards passing and 275 yards rushing but was dogged by 14 penalties. The penalty bug must go away if they are to cover 30 in Houston.
Rice’s offense is exactly opposite of Baylor’s. The Owls are already 119th in total offense and 121st in scoring offense. This has led them to a 0-2 record.
Baylor -30
Texas -8 at Cal
Cal travelled down to San Diego St. last week and took one on the chin. In their 45-40, the Bears let the Aztecs torch them on the ground. All in all, the Bears defense gave up 334 yards on the ground. Coming into the Texas game that doesn’t bode well. But, there were signs on offense that leads you to believe they can survive the departure of Jared Goff. Davis Webb threw for 522 yards against San Diego St. and has a legit threat in wide receiver Chad Henson.
Texas is living a dream after the first two weeks of the season. Their win over Notre Dame and destruction of UTEP has quieted talk of Charlie Strong’s demise. Just like in their win over Notre Dame, true freshman QB, Shane Buechele, doesn’t know how hard the transition to play big time QB is supposed to be. He was 22-27 for 244 yards with 4 TD passes. Chris Warren chipped in with 95 yards.
Texas finally hits the road this week and, on paper, this should be another win but a true freshman QB in his first road game might produce some bumps and could allow Cal to keep the game within the number.
Cal +8
Pitt +6 at Oklahoma St.
The old saying of “defense travels” can also pertain to running games and Pitt has a good one. James Connor seems to be picking it up a little each week and he went for 117 yards last week vs. Penn St. His ability to run against the Cowboys will be the key to Pitt’s chances in Stillwater.
The concern for Pitt will be on defense. After a solid first half against Penn St., the unit gave up 25 points in the second before a game saving interception in the waning moments. They will have to be opportunistic like they were last week when they forced 4 Nittany Lion turnovers.
Oklahoma St. is coming off their controversial loss to Central Michigan. Similar to Pitt’s defense, the Cowboys held a halftime lead only to give up 20 points in the second half including a TD on the last play of the game. They kept the Central Michigan running game in check but allowed 361 yards passing and 4 TD’s to Chippewas’ QB Cooper Rush.
This game could come down to Pitt’s rushing offense vs Oklahoma State’s rushing defense.
Pitt +6
Oregon +3 at Nebraska
It’s hard to believe in Oregon considering that their defense has been “leaky” and that’s being kind. They gave up 27 points to UC Davis and then allow UVA’s running backs to combine for 220 yards rushing. I’m going to chalk that up to a lack of focus. The Ducks going on the road could be a good thing for them as they go up against Mike Riley’s Cornhuskers in Lincoln.
Nebraska hasn’t exactly played the toughest of competition either. Their first two wins have come against Fresno St. and Wyoming. Against Wyoming, Armstrong Jr. threw for 377 yards and 3 TD’s.
Expect a shoot-out between these two that comes down to the last possession. Royce Freeman and Dakota Prukop will do enough to keep this a one possession final score.
Oregon +3
Last Week: 2-2
Overall: 2-6
